If your company operates in the dual-use sector, or if you're considering entering the GovCon space, and you find that your federal team is struggling to meet revenue targets, the problem may be how your team is setting their federal goals and timelines.  While it's commonly understood that federal sales cycles tend to be longer than those in commercial sectors, many newcomers to the federal arena, especially those accustomed to working with SBIRs and small business-friendly offices, may still significantly underestimate the extent of how long the federal procurement process can take.

Additionally, accurately estimating timelines can be challenging, influenced by various factors such as the nature of the relationship with government customers (for more information on  identifying your Government customers, see this great overview by Austin DeLorme--link), the contracting office involved, the dollar amount of the estimated award (including any options), funding availability, contract and vehicle types, and the current workload of the contracting office, among others.

This may seem impossible, but there are a few key questions you can ask to help set a reasonable goal for when you can expect a deal to close:

1. Funding Availability: Is funding currently available? Many users or requirements owners may talk about "having money in their budget" or knowing where to find money, but in most procurements, contracting and/or their budget or finance representatives require money in hand before they will ask the vendor to provide a formal proposal. (Note: This is different than a budget estimate, ROM, or informal quote--more on that in the coming weeks). If your user is still working to pull funding together, you may still be at the very beginning of the contracting process, or they may not have even spoken with contracting at all. A user without money means that your deal may be several months away from award, and may not even occur within the current government fiscal year (1 Oct to 30 Sep) depending on how motivated your user is, their ability to secure funding, and whether there is time to award a contract based on the dollar amount and contracting path.

1. Appropriation Type: Do you know the appropriation type your funding activity intends to use? This is somewhat of a loaded question, as there are many types of funding beyond the broad appropriation categories, and they each have their own rules and nuances for use. However, if you are a small company working with a new customer on a pilot or follow-on from an early SBIR award, it will be helpful to know if they plan to use Operations and Maintenance funding (O&M), Research and Development funding(RDT&E), Procurement Funding (Proc), or something else. Oftentimes, merely asking this question will tell you about the maturity of the deal—for example, if they have no idea at all, you likely are very early on in the process, or talking to the wrong customer within your deal. Another helpful answer is if they indicate that they are using "End of Year," "Fall Out," "Innovation," or some equivalent type of funding. These funds are usually part of a process that involves organizations determining what's left or available within a smaller pot of money to keep their major initiatives running, and often won't be awarded until later in the fiscal year (typically August-September time frame) when they have been determined for use based on prioritization and which products can be quickly awarded.
2. Engaging with the Contracting Officer: Speaking directly with the Contracting Officer is one of the most reliable ways to gauge realistic award timelines. This may not occur until after your user has secured funding and provided the initial documents contracting needs to set the acquisition strategy and secure the initial approvals to issue a formal solicitation. While it can take time to get a clear answer--a common answer to the question, "How soon can this be awarded?" in the contracting community is "It depends"--the Contracting Officer is perhaps one of the most impartial customers when it comes to realistic award timelines, as they are often responsible for managing the different levels and layers of review required to make an award.

Please note–Contracting Officers manage multiple contracts simultaneously, prioritizing based on funding availability, mission impact, and other operational considerations. It's important to recognize that their priorities may not align with a company's revenue goals, but once a commitment is made, they typically adhere to it, providing updates if circumstances change.

Setting goals informed by an understanding of the contracting process, federal funding timelines, and thorough customer discovery is essential for federal team success. These questions and data points are a few examples that can serve as helpful initial guides for accurate forecasting. What other strategies have you found helpful in estimating federal deal close dates when initiating engagements with new federal customers? Share your thoughts in the comments below!